2011 Initial Release Revision Net Change
August 0 104,000 +104,000
September 103,000 210,000 +107,000
October 80,000 120,000 +40,000
November 120,000 157,000 +37,000
December 200,000 223,000 +23,000
January 243,000 275,000 +32,000
February 227,000 240,000 +13,000
March 120,000 ????
Do you ever hear anyone mention this when the jobs number comes out? Ever? A kindergartener can figure out this trend, but those that manage billions of dollars on CNBC can’t seem to figure this out. The margin of error in this series is + or – 100,000 jobs, but no one seems to care about statistics, unless they are talking about the mean reversion of gross margins. A great commentary on that nonsense has been broken down by Jeff Miller here:
GDP gets similar treatment. Forget about the fact that the 2.2% number that came out last week was due to contraction in government spending, the inefficient use of private sector capital. The private sector grew at 3.4%.
Furthermore, the BEA expressly tells you that the average revision is UP! On average, GDP is revised up .2%. That was the GDP revision in the 4th quarter.
A tiny amount of effort to read the release instead of just the headline, and a basic understanding of the process of advance estimates can be enlightening. Don’t expect any enlightenment in financial entertainment television.